OpenSea, the giant that once held 90% of the NFT market, is finally approaching its TGE amid a sluggish market and intensified competition. This article reviews the development of OpenSea, analyzes the multiple reasons for its decision to hold TGE at this time, including the progress of the SEC lawsuit, changes in the policy environment, and market competitive pressure, and looks ahead to the potential market capitalization situation post-TGE. Facing the upcoming opportunity, it may be the last chance for ordinary users to participate and claim airdrops.
The world's largest NFT trading platform OpenSea is estimated to be approaching TGE soon. A brief review: OpenSea was established in 2017 and held 90% of the NFT market share in 2022, but after the launch of Blur in October, its share has gradually been eroded, and now Blur's annual trading volume has far surpassed OpenSea. However, after the announcement, trading volume has increased.
There are a few reasons why they chose to issue tokens now, despite the NFT market being so sluggish.
First, the lawsuit with the U.S. SEC is coming to a close. In August last year, the SEC issued a Wells notice to OpenSea, believing that certain NFTs traded on the OpenSea platform may be classified as unregistered securities, thus requiring regulation under securities laws. Here, we must emphasize again that according to the "Howey Test" from the U.S. Supreme Court, if an asset involves an investment of money, a common enterprise, and the expectation of profits primarily from the efforts of others, it may be considered a security. This is often mentioned because I believe it is the biggest issue affecting the development of Web3.
The second reason I think is the crypto-friendly policies after Trump took office. Issuing tokens at this time carries relatively less risk, and with OpenSea being a domestic company in the U.S., having once been a leader in the field, many big names are backing it, making the opportunity ripe.
The third reason is that in a market that is continuously being eroded, it is difficult to gain user support without leveraging a token economy. Moreover, Blur is also performing well and has token support.
Now, let's discuss the market capitalization situation post-TGE for OpenSea, which mainly depends on three aspects.
First, the current institutional valuation, which is $13.3 billion based on the last round of financing.
Second, the revenue situation of the protocol, which was around $20 million last year.
Third, a comparison with the market capitalization of the competitor Blur. Blur's annual trading volume is nearly three times that of OpenSea, but in terms of annual fees paid by users, OpenSea is nearly three times that of Blur. Blur's FDV is $400 million; what do you think OpenSea's will be?
An interesting thing is that on a decentralized prediction platform, someone has posted a prediction about what the FDV will be on the first day of SEA's launch. The current predicted amount is already close to $300,000.
After all this, is there anyone who doesn't know how to use OpenSea? Before the official TGE, come and try it out; who knows, you might get an airdrop.
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